Timing still isn’t right for AgJunction, says Paradigm

Paradigm Capital analyst Daniel Kim says he sees some promise in AgJunction (AgJunction Stock Quote, Chart, News: TSX:AJX), but not yet enough to get behind the stock.

On Thursday, AgJunction reported its fourth quarter and fiscal 2016 results. In the fourth quarter, the company posted Adjusted EBITDA of negative $2.4-million on revenue of $8.2-million, a topline that was down 29.3 per cent from the $11.6-million topline the company posted in the same period last year.

“Our fourth quarter and full-year results reflect the weakness in the global agriculture industry,” said CEO Dave Vaughn. “We are using this slowdown as an opportunity to reconfigure the company to best serve the needs of our global customer base so that we are ready with the right products when the market inevitably recovers. In fact, we have assembled a dedicated team to answer the demand from global platform producers for vehicle-specific, AgJunction-engineered after-market retrofit kits, and this effort is showing early success with several OEM prospects. Looking to 2017, we will continue to focus on delivering products and technology that best suit our clients’ needs in both today’s market and in the long term. We will also continue to utilize our strong patent portfolio to drive creative new business opportunities as we have done with our recent agreement with Reichhardt GmbH. Given our deep industry experience, innovative product development and strong IP, all supported by our strong balance sheet, we believe we are well positioned to help our customers both today and into the future.”

Kim notes that management says it is seeing some spring demand, and says he is paying attention to the company’s IP monetization strategy. But he says the stock looks fully valued at current levels.

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“The strategy of monetizing AJX’s strong patent portfolio had been mentioned in prior periods as an untapped cash flow source, and it is encouraging to see serious advancements,” says the analyst. “Further, AJX’s cash balance remains relatively stable and the company carries zero debt. That said, given the long and uncertain roadmap to an inflection point (pressures being felt by suppliers, OEMs, VARs and resellers across the board), and a dearth of near-term catalysts, we believe more optimal investment strategies lie elsewhere.”

In a research update to clients today, Kim maintained his “Hold” rating and one-year price target of $0.55 on the stock.

Kim thinks AgJunction will post EBITDA of negative $4.9-million on revenue of $39.5-million in fiscal 2017.